Nate Silver, baseball statistician turned political analyst, gained a lot of attention during the 2012 United States elections when he successfully predicted the outcome of the presidential vote in ...

Discover how credibility theory helps actuaries use historical data to estimate risks and set insurance premiums; learn how ...

In science, progress is possible. In fact, if one believes in Bayes' theorem, scientific progress is inevitable as predictions are made and as beliefs are tested and refined. ~ Nate Silver If the ...

Having a strong opinion about an issue can make it hard to take in new information about it, or to consider other options when they’re presented. Thankfully, there’s an old rule that can help us avoid ...

pt. 1. Enlightenment and the anti-Bayesian reaction -- Causes in the air -- The man who did everything -- Many doubts, few defenders -- pt. 2. Second World War era -- Bayes goes to war -- Dead and ...

An international team of physicists has extended Bayes’ rule into the quantum realm, potentially transforming how we handle uncertainty in quantum computing and machine learning. The study is ...