The World Science Festival's panel on Probability and Risk started out in an unusual manner: MIT's Josh Tennenbaum strode onto a stage and flipped a coin five times, claiming he was psychically ...

Long before statistical whiz Nate Silver predicted the outcome of the 2012 presidential election and "Moneyball" became a household word, structural engineers employed the Monte Carlo method of ...

Pathological behaviors toward drugs and food rewards have underlying commonalities. Risk-taking has a fourfold pattern varying as a function of probability and valence leading to the nonlinearity of ...

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Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (DPRA) represents a significant evolution in the evaluation of nuclear power plant safety, integrating time-dependent models of system evolution with stochastic ...

The design and construction of capital projects can be extremely complex. Uncertainty and risk add to this complexity and, as a result, many projects experience significant cost overruns and schedule ...

What Are Risk-Neutral Probabilities? Risk-neutral probabilities are probabilities of potential future outcomes adjusted for risk, which are then used to compute expected asset values. In other words, ...

Just because a critical failure hasn’t happened yet doesn’t mean it won’t happen in the future. The question becomes: If it ...