Bayesian reasoning provides a principled framework for updating beliefs based on new evidence, playing a pivotal role in understanding human cognitive processes. This framework illuminates how ...

First articulated in the 18th century by a hobbyist-mathematician seeking to reason backward from effects to cause, Bayes’ theorem spent the better part of two centuries struggling for recognition and ...

Bayesian networks, also known as Bayes nets, belief networks, or decision networks, are a powerful tool for understanding and reasoning about complex systems under uncertainty. They are essentially ...

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Robert Matthews talks of the connection between belief and Bayes’s theorem (13 March, p 38). He seems to think that, because you have to start with some arbitrary level of belief in order for Bayesian ...

I am prompted to write this vignette after viewing an entertaining and faithful adaptation of Lauren Slater’s non-fiction 2004 book, “Opening Skinner’s box”. She described with some detail her attempt ...

The Rev. Thomas Bayes was, as the honorific the Rev. suggests, a clergyman. Too bad he wasn’t a lawyer. Maybe if he had been, lawyers today wouldn’t be so reluctant to enlist his mathematical insights ...

Whether in everyday life or in the lab, we often want to make inferences about hypotheses. Whether I’m deciding it’s safe to run a yellow light, when I need to leave home in order to make it to my ...

This course is available on the MSc in Comparative Politics, MSc in Development Management, MSc in Development Studies, MSc in Global Politics, MSc in Health and International Development, MSc in ...